With conditions not favouring its progress, southwest monsoon is expected to hit the Kerala coast by June 4, three days after its normal onset date, the MET department has said.
The RBI chief was speaking to researchers at an analyst call.
Addressing an international meet on key inputs for accelerated development of Indian power sector at New Delhi on Tuesday Montek Singh Ahluwalia, Deputy Chairman of Planning Commission said that India's growth projection could be trimmed due to a poor monsoon.
The finance ministry has cautioned that global and regional uncertainties and domestic disruptions may keep inflationary pressures elevated in the coming months, warranting "greater vigilance" by the government and the Reserve Bank of India (RBI). "Russia's decision to terminate the Black Sea grain deal, along with dry conditions in major wheat-growing areas, caused a price spike in cereals. Domestic factors like white fly disease and an uneven distribution of monsoon exerted pressure on vegetable prices in India," the ministry said in its latest Monthly Economic Report for July, released on Tuesday. However, the report maintained, the recent price surge in certain food items "is expected to be transitory". "Tomato prices are likely to decline with the arrival of fresh stocks by the end of August or early September.
No immediate relief appears in sight as the India Meteorological Department issued a red alert for six districts which have been already pounded by downpour, forecasting "extremely heavy" rainfall and recommending preventive actions.
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Congress senior leaders concede that UPA could be safe in terms of numbers but that does not solve problem totally
The latest forecast, given by Earth Sciences Minister Jitendra Singh, was a downward revision from a previous forecast of 93 per cent given at the outset of the monsoon in June, but was nowhere near as bad some farmers had feared.
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In the coming months, globally as well as in India, rice might remain a hot potato.
A good monsoon would translate into demand pickup across multiple sectors.
The rise in inflation based on wholesale prices in October from 9.72 per cent in September was mainly on account of higher prices of fruits and vegetables, manufactured goods and petrol.
Food inflation, which remains remarkably high at over 12 per cent, could be tamed through innovative agriculture business models, a KPMG report said.
This was the fifth consecutive week in which the rate of food prices has risen, after a spell of moderation in July and the first half of August.
The 77th Independence Day on Tuesday was a low-key affair in Himachal Pradesh with the traditional cultural programmes missing from official and district-level functions as the state mourns the deaths and destruction caused by incessant rains.
Singh assured that the government was taking all possible steps to contain food inflation.
CPI inflation slowed to 9.39% in April compared with 10.39% in March.
In the chair was Defence Minister Rajnath Singh, a Bharatiya Janata Party leader of the old school with friends across parties unlike the duo who currently run the BJP.
So far, inflation outcomes have closely tracked these projections.
Unprecedented rains and floods in the northern region in the past few days have not only caused extensive damage to lives and property but have also impacted business and commercial establishments. Vegetable prices have gone through the roof in the national capital and many other parts of the country since rains started pouring earlier this month. Traders say vegetable prices would come down only after roads open and skies clear, even as water in the fields will take time to recede.
While the progress of the monsoon has brightened the prospects of foodgrain production, the fall in sown area is a matter of concern, Agriculture Minister Sharad Pawar tells Sanjay Jog.
Experts pointed out that the government's poor planning and lack of investment in farm infrastructure have led to food shortage in the country, which is been capitalised by traders.
The finance ministry on Thursday raised concerns over the possible impact of El Nio conditions on India this year, saying if recent forecasts came true, the country could see lower agricultural output and higher inflation. "Some meteorological agencies predict the return of El Nio conditions in India this year. "If these predictions are accurate, then monsoon rains could be deficient, leading to lower agricultural output and higher prices," the ministry said in its monthly economic review.
Wayanad will continue to support Rahul but not to the same extent as in 2019, when his margin of victory had been enormous. Articulate, to the point and speaking in fluent Malayalam, CPI's Annie Raja, had the people who gathered to see her, listening in rapt attention, notes Shyam G Menon.
The state government has declared a holiday on Wednesday and Thursday for all private institutions, offices, non-essential services within Outer Ring Road here in view of rains.
The repo rate could be reduced by 50 bps in the current year.
Improved monsoon, solid fiscal performance, and capex push by the public and private sectors augurs well for India's macroeconomic stability and growth, the finance ministry's monthly economic review for June 2023 said. But the report said that while India's domestic fundamentals remain strong, negative cross-border spillovers and adverse global developments could act as a deterrent in achieving the high growth path this financial year. "An improved matching of aggregate supply and aggregate demand in the Indian economy underpins the progress made in the control of domestic inflation and the consequent strengthening of macroeconomic stability," the review said.
Food inflation had remained above the 16 per cent-level for most part of the year.
India decisively withstood global headwinds in 2023 and is likely to remain as the world's fastest-growing major economy on the back of growing demand, moderate inflation, stable interest rate regime and robust foreign exchange reserves. Despite widespread pessimism witnessed among the developed nations and the worsening geopolitical situation, India recorded a gross domestic product (GDP) expansion of 6.1 per cent in the March quarter. The growth moved up to 7.8 per cent in the June quarter and was 7.6 per cent in the September quarter. For the first six months of this fiscal, the growth was 7.7 per cent.
The government on Thursday admitted there were "pressure points" in the economy due to mounting food and petroleum subsidies, but said the growth would be "significant" this year due to good monsoon and industrial revival.
The meeting took place in the backdrop of drought-like conditions prevailing in some parts of the country.
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The price stabilisation fund will call for processing capacity for perishables.
Prices are likely to rise further as demand grows in coming months due to festivals
Food inflation has jumped to 17.47 per cent for the week ended November 21 from 15.58 per cent in the previous week.
Rising crude oil prices, traction in China equities and inflation concerns back home are casting a shadow on the Indian equity markets in the short term, believe analysts at Jefferies. They said this could see the markets remaining range-bound in the near term before the next leg up.
The rain gods, it appears, will play a role in the decision of fast moving consumer goods companies to either raise or maintain prices of their products in the second quarter of the financial year.
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